Forecasting Informal care needs of the urban-rural older adults in China based on microsimulation model

Table 1 The informal care costs for the older adults in urban and rural areas from 2020 to 2040 (billion yuan)

听	Rural area			Urban area			听
Year	Mild disability	Moderate disability	Severe disability	Mild disability	Moderate disability	Severe disability	Total
2020	56.39	53.40	45.79	119.52	128.49	86.72	490.31
2021	56.54	54.07	46.36	125.44	134.90	91.40	508.71
2022	57.22	55.17	47.44	132.19	142.21	97.63	531.87
2023	58.44	56.50	48.50	139.97	150.11	104.06	557.57
2024	60.46	58.49	49.98	149.67	160.18	111.61	590.39
2025	62.66	60.76	51.75	159.59	170.93	119.92	625.60
2026	64.96	63.17	53.70	169.46	181.96	128.59	661.84
2027	67.31	65.65	55.69	179.34	193.04	137.46	698.48
2028	69.44	67.99	57.66	188.61	203.66	146.34	733.70
2029	71.63	70.32	59.52	198.33	214.67	155.25	769.73
2030	73.66	72.41	61.12	208.00	225.42	164.20	804.80
2031	75.62	74.35	62.54	217.80	236.22	173.28	839.81
2032	77.32	76.03	63.71	227.09	246.61	182.23	872.99
2033	78.58	77.21	64.50	235.97	255.57	190.43	902.25
2034	80.25	79.21	66.42	246.47	267.45	201.54	941.34
2035	81.28	80.62	67.80	255.82	277.83	211.41	974.75
2036	81.87	81.75	69.05	263.97	287.59	220.86	1,005.09
2037	82.04	82.59	70.15	270.79	296.47	229.53	1,031.57
2038	81.79	83.03	70.93	276.63	304.05	237.44	1,053.87
2039	81.22	83.21	71.59	281.41	310.90	244.47	1,072.79
2040	80.31	83.10	72.03	284.52	316.83	249.86	1,086.65

ISSN: 1471-2458